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The Future of ISB and Sea Level Rise

As a lowland city Bangkok, which is aptly named the Venice of the east, is under imminent threat from melting ice caps caused by greenhouse gases emitted due largely to human pollution and over agriculture. ISB, Nichada, Nonthaburi and the whole of Bangkok have an average elevation of 1.5 m, with the school cafeteria approximately 3 m above sea level.

The latest climate models, the same climate models that as of yet have accurately predicted dozens of climate induced events from the drought in California to the death of the great barrier reef, predict that global sea levels will rise between 4 m and 10 m by the year 2036. This will cause the relocation of tens of millions of people worldwide with over 10 million climate refugees fleeing from the Bangkok region. This will also cause the Everglades to disappear the Central Valley in California to become an inland sea, various island nations will be wiped off the map with mainland countries being under threat of large-scale coastal flooding.

Cities such as New York, Washington DC, Philadelphia, London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seattle will disappear. With sea level rise this drastic we can expect to see ISB under water in the next couple of decades. Unfortunately, this is unavoidable, even if the Paris Agreement had placed stringent enough boundaries on the emissions of greenhouse gases, it would not address the problem to a large enough extent.

Even if all of humanity somehow becomes vegan, ends bovine agriculture, fossil fuels and stops clearing the rain forests the earth would continue warming for the next 20+ years causing sea level rise and widespread famine. If we stop admissions by 2036 the climate would correct itself over a period of many decades. With sea level rise of 10 m by 2036 the atmosphere would have become a full 2°C warmer than it was before the industrial revolution, but this is not even the half of it.

If current warming trends continue the planet will warm to 6° centigrade above the preindustrial atmosphere. This will spell the extinction of 98% of life on earth including humans, it will be impossible to grow crops. The oxygen levels will be as low as at the top of Mount Everest and there will be daily hurricanes in a toxic atmosphere. Climate change is currently predicted by NASA to be irreversible in approximately 47 years. If trends continue and we do not start large-scale artificial carbon sequestration, we will be the last generation of students to graduate from ISB.

Joshua Wright

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